Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Democrats versus Republicans: Both Parties are NOT the Same

Money in Elections and Voting

ForAgainst
Rep  042
Dem54  0

ForAgainst
Rep   039
Dem59  0

ForAgainst
Rep  053
Dem45  0

ForAgainst
Rep838
Dem513

ForAgainst
Rep232   0
Dem  0189

ForAgainst
Rep  20170
Dem228  0

Environment

ForAgainst
Rep21413
Dem  19162

ForAgainst
Rep218   2
Dem  4186

"War on Terror"

ForAgainst
Rep   152
Dem45   1

ForAgainst
Rep196  31
Dem  54122

ForAgainst
Rep15214
Dem176  16

ForAgainst
Rep188   1
Dem  105128

ForAgainst
Rep227   7
Dem  74111

ForAgainst
Rep  2228
Dem172  21

ForAgainst
Rep  332
Dem 52  3

ForAgainst
Rep  245
Dem47  2

ForAgainst
Rep  643
Dem50  1

ForAgainst
Rep44  0
Dem  941

ForAgainst
Rep  542
Dem50  0

ForAgainst
Rep   350
Dem45  1

ForAgainst
Rep  542
Dem39  12

ForAgainst
Rep38  2
Dem  949

ForAgainst
Rep46  2
Dem  149

ForAgainst
Rep   152
Dem45  1

The Economy/Jobs

ForAgainst
Rep  439
Dem55  2

ForAgainst
Rep  048
Dem50  2

ForAgainst
Rep39  1
Dem  154

ForAgainst
Rep38   2
Dem  1836

ForAgainst
Rep  1032
Dem53  1

ForAgainst
Rep233   1
Dem  6175

ForAgainst
Rep42   1
Dem  251  

ForAgainst
Rep  3173
Dem247  4

ForAgainst
Rep  436
Dem57  0

ForAgainst
Rep  144
Dem54  1

ForAgainst
Rep33   13
Dem  052

ForAgainst
Rep  141
Dem53  1

ForAgainst
Rep  040
Dem58  1

Equal Rights

ForAgainst
Rep  141
Dem54  0

ForAgainst
Rep41  3
Dem  252

ForAgainst
Rep  647
Dem42  2

Family Planning

ForAgainst
Rep  450
Dem44  1

ForAgainst
Rep  351
Dem44  1

ForAgainst
Rep  342
Dem53  1

Misc

ForAgainst
Rep45   0
Dem  052

ForAgainst
Rep  141
Dem54  0

ForAgainst
Rep  046
Dem46  6

ForAgainst
Rep  051
Dem45  1

ForAgainst
Rep228   7
Dem  0185

ForAgainst
Rep  2234
Dem177  6

ForAgainst
Rep  0  46
Dem52  0

Democrats versus Republicans: Both Parties are NOT the Same

Money in Elections and Voting

ForAgainst
Rep  042
Dem54  0

ForAgainst
Rep   039
Dem59  0

ForAgainst
Rep  053
Dem45  0

ForAgainst
Rep838
Dem513

ForAgainst
Rep232   0
Dem  0189

ForAgainst
Rep  20170
Dem228  0

Environment

ForAgainst
Rep21413
Dem  19162

ForAgainst
Rep218   2
Dem  4186

"War on Terror"

ForAgainst
Rep   152
Dem45   1

ForAgainst
Rep196  31
Dem  54122

ForAgainst
Rep15214
Dem176  16

ForAgainst
Rep188   1
Dem  105128

ForAgainst
Rep227   7
Dem  74111

ForAgainst
Rep  2228
Dem172  21

ForAgainst
Rep  332
Dem 52  3

ForAgainst
Rep  245
Dem47  2

ForAgainst
Rep  643
Dem50  1

ForAgainst
Rep44  0
Dem  941

ForAgainst
Rep  542
Dem50  0

ForAgainst
Rep   350
Dem45  1

ForAgainst
Rep  542
Dem39  12

ForAgainst
Rep38  2
Dem  949

ForAgainst
Rep46  2
Dem  149

ForAgainst
Rep   152
Dem45  1

The Economy/Jobs

ForAgainst
Rep  439
Dem55  2

ForAgainst
Rep  048
Dem50  2

ForAgainst
Rep39  1
Dem  154

ForAgainst
Rep38   2
Dem  1836

ForAgainst
Rep  1032
Dem53  1

ForAgainst
Rep233   1
Dem  6175

ForAgainst
Rep42   1
Dem  251  

ForAgainst
Rep  3173
Dem247  4

ForAgainst
Rep  436
Dem57  0

ForAgainst
Rep  144
Dem54  1

ForAgainst
Rep33   13
Dem  052

ForAgainst
Rep  141
Dem53  1

ForAgainst
Rep  040
Dem58  1

Equal Rights

ForAgainst
Rep  141
Dem54  0

ForAgainst
Rep41  3
Dem  252

ForAgainst
Rep  647
Dem42  2

Family Planning

ForAgainst
Rep  450
Dem44  1

ForAgainst
Rep  351
Dem44  1

ForAgainst
Rep  342
Dem53  1

Misc

ForAgainst
Rep45   0
Dem  052

ForAgainst
Rep  141
Dem54  0

ForAgainst
Rep  046
Dem46  6

ForAgainst
Rep  051
Dem45  1

ForAgainst
Rep228   7
Dem  0185

ForAgainst
Rep  2234
Dem177  6

ForAgainst
Rep  0  46
Dem52  0

Monday, July 11, 2016

The Economic Consequences of Brexit

I'm perhaps in a good position to offer some information as to some of the points they raise in the paper, which is very good.

I am a macroeconomist and commodity market analyst within a very large retailer here in the UK. In essence, my team functions as something akin to an investment bank in many ways, the purpose being to use more sophisticated risk management strategies to minimise price volatility (both commodities and FX) to keep costs low and stable for the customer, so I probably have more in common with the likes of people at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs than I do with most of the rest of the company.

So with that being said, I have a lot of experience from a buy-side retail perspective, as well as pretty close relationships with a lot of partner banks and financial services companies, which often includes coming across their own internal reports in addition to the ones we generate.

Just a few points to pick up:


"We expect real GDP in the UK to be 6% below our baseline forecast by 2020 if voters elect to leave."

This is broadly in line with most forecasts I've seen. I believe the Bloomberg document I saw made reference to 4% over the same period, though not quite as extreme. However, what has not been discussed is what form the UK's relationship with the EU would take. April's long-term forecast report from the Treasury (link here) gives slightly different numbers, though still not a pretty read:

EEANegotiated bilateral agreementWTO only
GDP level % - central-3.8-6.2-7.5
GDP level-3.4 to -4.3-4.6 to -7.8-5.4 to -9.5
GDP per capita - central-£1,100-£1,800-£2,100
GDP per capita-£1,000 to £1,200-£1,300 to -£2,200-£1,500 to £2,700
GDP per household - central-£2,600-£4,300-£5,200
GDP per household-£2,400 to -£2,900-£3,200 to -£5,400-£3,700 to -£6,600


Note that these are annualised figures. The report goes on to explain its methodology, but I cannot remember (and am not going to check just yet) how long they anticipated it would take to renegotiate a bilateral deal with the EU. Most estimates seem to say around eight to ten years, so I imagine they have used that when modelling the initial shock over the next 15 years.

I can also confirm how badly the financial services industry would be hit, and to a large extent how badly it has already been affected. Being aware of many positions and having a constant pulse on recruitment (I am recruiting from the City right now), it has been very shocking to see the drastic drop in vacancies over the past few months.

A lot of this financial sector uncertainty hinges on a few key things:

The European Passporting System, as described here by the FSA. Basically, if you are based in one EU country, you can sell financial products and services to any other EU country without having an office established in that country. For the UK, this is enormously important, as London is the typical port of call for American and Asian banks setting up in Europe and using London as a base to sell to the rest of the EU. If the UK did not immediately negotiate to rejoin the EEA and keep the passporting system in place, this is what would drive the exodus from London. I have already seen a few risk-averse companies moving their open vacancies to Dublin and Frankfurt. It would require most non-European companies to set up primary offices elsewhere in Europe, leaving a small London outpost to sell services to the UK specifically. Even if passporting were negotiated as part of a bilateral agreement, the City could not survive without the system for possibly a decade.

Lack of inward investment into the UK. This will hit a lot more than just financial services. The UK's current account deficit is a little over 7% of GDP, which is quite high. Historically, because of this gap, Britain has relied on foreign direct investment to plug the hole. About half of this FDI comes from elsewhere in the EU. This paper from the LSE's Centre for Economic Performace goes into quite a lot of detail, but suffice it to say, we have already seen inward investment to the UK fall to nearly nothing over the last two months as people wait for the results of the referendum. I have no doubt that it will pick back up after the result is known, regardless of what the outcome is, but in the event that Brexit is victorious, there is a lot of doubt as to how much of that FDI will ever come back.

Moving on to things from a retail perspective: in my particular company, approximately 60% of our products are sourced from outside the UK, and of those, nearly all of them are from Europe. In the event that the UK applies to join the EEA during the exit negotiations, this will not likely impact consumers to quite a large extent, although currency volatility and lower investment could lead to small price rises. However, in the event that the UK decides to enter the decade-long bilateral negotiation plan, things will truly go haywire. It has been almost impossible for us to model changes to unit prices if you include tariffs, because we simply do not have the manpower, but the impact of tariffs levied on most goods, in addition to a weakened GBP, makes for pretty ugly reading. I cannot be too specific, but when looking at margins, there were a lot of red numbers on the sheets that would have to be passed onto consumers in the form of 20%+ increases on most items in their weekly shop.

I would also mention that the paper by the Economist seems to take a slightly rosier view of exit negotiations - they seem to be anticipating some sort of Swiss-style EFTA deal where immigration can be put on the table, which a lot of the Leave group have been championing. I am less certain that that will even be a possibility. Put simply, why would it be in the EU's interests to give Britain access to nearly all elements of the EEA, but let one of the 'fundamental freedoms' be compromised to an extent that not even Switzerland has been able to do? When the Swiss voted by referendum to limit the number of Croatians who could come into the country, the EU cut Swiss access to the Horizons 2020 research programme, a huge blow for the country's science and innovation sector. Not only that, but it is in the EU's interests to ensure that no other country will ever try to jump off the ship, and then demand access to all the bits they like. It would spell the end of the European project, and that cannot happen.

As they rightly point out in the introduction, the main impact to the automotive industry (one of the UK's largest manufactured exports) would largely be due to supply chain disruptions, although they make the case later on that reduced consumer spending would hit their sales. This largely seems to square with what the automakers themselves have said, particularly Toyota, who released this statement after the Leave campaign erroneously had them marked as pro-Brexit.

SOURCE

The Banality of Evil

Arendt never argues that Eichmann was not driven by malice, hatred, and racism. She also never argues that he wasn't fully aware of what he was doing or that he was simply a mindless bureaucrat following orders. In fact, she rather explicitly gives examples and argues in favor of both those descriptions of Eichmann.

What Arendt does argue, is that Eichmann's evil comes from having been a "joiner." In a search for some higher meaning, he gave himself to a cause so completely that he was unable to think outside of it's cliche's, standard lines... or from the point of view of other people. By adopting a cause Eichmann created a intellectual fence around himself and relieved himself of having to think critically or examine his convictions. Eichmann rejected the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, didn't believe in Blood libel, in other words, his antisemitism wasn't based on religious beliefs, or a conspiratorial belief in Jewish world domination, he justified it because it was his part of his "fatherland morality." 

Antisemitism was a function of his ardent belief in Nazism. Eichmann, and those like him, didn't seek a rational, coherent world view full of intellectual integrity in Nazism, they sought (and gave themselves fully to Nazism because they received) a sense of brotherhood, righteousness, pride, social capital, and historical importance. To question the fundamental tenants tenets of Nazism was to threaten all that mattered in their lives.

There is pleasure in understanding the world around us and meaning in the unending work of developing and refining a coherent world view. Adopting an ideology, short circuits that effort, providing pleasure and meaning with an unwarranted (and unquestioned) degree of certainty. 

Consequently, fully adopting an ideology, whether it's Nazism or Feminism, is fundamentally not a benign act. People do this on a regular basis: unquestioned, mild, allegiance to their church, to their political party, to traditional values, to their social causes, etc. This is the essence of "the banality of evil" that Arendt talks about. There is a strong intellectual resemblance between the unquestioned beliefs and unexamined assumptions that allow a man to ship millions of people to extermination camps, and the unquestioned assumptions and beliefs that we all operate on, on a daily basis. Psychopathic cruelty and blood-thirst are not required.

So when people claim that Arendt is wrong about Eichmann, they don't need to demonstrate that he was a willing and dedicated mass murderer. Arendt does a good job demonstrating that in her own book. They need to show that he was actively questioning Nazism's tenets not simply rearranging the "cliches" of Nazism to justify his actions.

This article seems to really have it out for Arendt without actually engaging with her thesis in the slightest. They describe her suggestion that Eichmann had "no criminal motives" as "shocking," as if Arendt was soft or forgiving of Eichmann. What Arendt is actually arguing in that quote is that Eichmann was a fanatic who saw nothing criminal or wrong with what he did. I attribute this flagrant misrepresentation of her work to Arendt's controversial position in the Jewish community. Her historically accurate critique of the Jewish response to the holocaust has offended many people. Some would like to believe that the Jews were above the fray, that they didn't react to the horror around them with the mix of heroism and smallness that one would expect of any group of people.

Coffee and the Aeropress Process

It's easiest if I contextualize any answer in the lens of general brewing, then apply that to aeropress. If the early tangent is a nuisance, my apologies - this is just a fun opportunity to write a bit of a help doc on general brewing that I've been meaning to write for a while now. I have way more fun responding to questions than writing blind, so want to treat your interesting questions as an opportunity to be exploited.

For any given coffee brewed via any given method, there is an 'ideal extraction window' - a time period of brewing in which an ideal extraction will occur.

Extraction in this sense is referring to two interlinked concepts: a chemical thing, and a taste profile. Speaking at the physical level, extraction is the percentage by mass of your dry coffee that is removed into the solution that is brewed coffee at the time your brewing process finishes. At the taste level, the results of the physical definition can affect the taste of the brew you produce; an 'underextracted' brew has taken less than the ideal mass from your coffee, and will generally taste sharp, sour, and wine-dry, an 'overextracted' brew will taste harsh, bitter, and astringent, "extraction" in this sense refers to how much of either is present in your cup, or if you've hit the golden zone in the middle where neither occurs.

Your ideal extraction window is set by a combination of factors, best understood by looking at the ease by which water can 'fill' a semi-permeable physical object when we assume that we are dealing with a set total mass of many many similar objects all subject to full immersion.

If each object is smaller, it takes less time for water to fully soak into each individual one. So a smaller grind size for your coffee shortens the ideal window, as each piece you're brewing from will individually reach ideal saturation faster, and 'brew' faster as a result. Similarly, if each object is larger, it takes longer for water to fully soak into each one. By increasing your grind size, you lengthen your ideal extraction window as it will take longer to fully saturate and brew the larger pieces.

If you use more coffee, you have more total objects in the solution, resulting in more available compounds to be extracted. If they're all the same size, they should want the same time as a smaller amount of coffee ground to the same size, simply producing a more-concentrated version of what you were already making. This is the best way to get "stronger" or "more caffeinated" coffee - simply use more grounds from the start. However, having more mass in your cone or cylinder will have more total objects blocking the flow of water, so despite the fact that the ideal extraction window remains the same, in many cases using more total grounds will result in an overall slower process. Many folks will adjust their grind size as dose shifts to try and counteract this - if it's definitely going to take longer at a larger mass, we should simply grind slightly coarser so the resultant brew time increase we get is still hitting an ideal time.

If the water is hotter, it softens the cellulose structure of the grinds better. If the pieces' size is now considered fixed, when we use a hotter water it takes less time to fully saturate the same size particle than when we use a cooler water. Again, this is a way of changing the time it takes to get to the ideal brewing window. Temperature is additionally complex as there are some breakpoints involved; above 184 for instance is necessary to fully extract all the available compounds generally considered desirable in a 'complete' brew. There is some mythology around upper bounds as well, that using a too-hot water can extract compounds better left behind, but there's more and more critique of this concept and I don't like to treat it as gospel - I'd simply recommend you test with the coffees you use and see what you prefer.

Pressure also directly affects extraction. Extracting under higher pressures will result in a faster extraction if all else remains the same compared to the same extraction at lower pressure. This is why, for instance, espresso is a 30-35s extraction at 9bars pressure, while Aeropress uses a similar amount of coffee, far more water, and generally has far longer brew times and ideal windows, even if you're using something closer to an espresso grind in it. But~! For aeropress especially, this comes into play with flow rate and particle size - if you have to press harder to force a brew to flow through, you are also increasing the pressure inside the chamber and speeding up extraction. Similarly, longer times spent at higher pressures has a larger and larger effect on results, so spending a very long time yarding on a very hard press can be even worse. In most cases, if you need to press hard to hurry things up, you're already dancing with overextraction, and 'pressing harder' is not necessarily the expeditious solution it may seem - probably want a slightly coarser grind next time, instead.

The last important thing that affects extraction rate is agitation: stirring primarily, but in many cases the act of adding water at all is also providing agitation. The more agiatation you have, the faster your brew will be extracting. Similar to how volume of water allows more space between grounds and a higher concentration differential to accelerate extraction, agitation also spaces out the grounds more evenly across the total volume of water you have in play, while also accelerating each grounds' exposure to larger amounts of water it's passing through - if you add lots of water but your grounds have time to settle out, that's pretty much the same as only adding the amount of water needed for the bottom area they've settled to. Everything in the top isn't doing squat for brewing and may be causing weirdness in your cup in methods like pourover as it can potentially be exiting laterally rather than through the coffee mass and resulting in an uneven or overly-dilute-tasting brew, even if your ratios and grind size were actually correct.

From the above factors to the brew time itself. Your brewing time is of course how you obtain or achieve that ideal window you're setting up with the last two steps. In any flow-through brewing (cone, AP normal), and in most steep-and-release brewing as well (clever, AP invert) your grind size will affect flow-through rates. The smaller your pieces, the tighter together they can pack, and the more time it takes water to flow through them. Think of damming up a narrow river: a single large boulder will obstruct water everywhere there's boulder, but will have space around the corners where the river still easily and rapidly flows past, dam it up with a load of sand and every individual gap is much smaller, slowing the flow of water in your river far more than the boulder did. So finer grinds need less time, but make your brew take longer, while coarser grinds need more time but make your brew actually go faster. This is why there's so much balancing act and desired precision around grind settings - you're balancing moving the brew window around changing grind size against lengthening or shortening the brew time itself as a result of the same changes.

As far as manipulating time and window to get good results, though. Tuning temperature is a very volatile way of attempting to compensate, and most folks will find tuning their process least frustrating by not changing it about lots - it can have what feels like a multiplicative effect on grind sizes and other variables. For most folks, grind is the best single variable to change around while searching for their version of the ideal brew. Depending on method, technique can help tune your ability to attain a specific brew time, without changing anything else, if you feel all your input should be good but the result is just a little off. Within cone or pour-over, the density of the brew slurry affects extraction and flow rates alike: the more water in the cone at any given time, the more space between each piece filled with water there is, and the wider the gap in concentration of extractable mass between the solution and the particulate - faster extraction; the more space between each particle filled with water, additionally, means the particles are further apart and have less of a slowing impact on flow rates - faster flow as well. With aeropress, the particle size still affects ideal brew window, but also affects how much pressure is needed to 'press through' in both methods and how much will naturally escape during brewing for AP normal. Taking steps like agitation (stirring) to prevent the brew mass from settling can again keep concentration gradients high and accelerate extraction, while also stirring or agitating directly before pressing can prevent the grounds from acting as a single mass and slowing press-through time. In either method, if the brew takes too long to finish, either in dripping through on cone or pressing on AP, you have extended your brew time and may be introducing the flavors of over-extraction to your end result.

The water you're using in your brewing (in any method) affects two things - how long it'll take to finish brewing (everything you put in the top needs to come out the bottom) as well as how diffuse or not your brew slurry will be. With more water in the brew and more space between each particle, you get faster extraction rates and faster flow rates - using a lot of water all close together in a brew process generally results in a faster brew all told, while using the same amount of water more spread out will have a slower ideal extraction rate, but also a slower overall pace.

In most cases, how much water you use in your brewing versus the amount of coffee pretty directly determines the end concentration (strength, or TDS as 'total dissolved solids'); adding water after the fact was for a very long time rather frowned on as something somehow 'bad' for the brew, but what's known as 'bypass brewing' has seemed to see a resurgance recently and most professional concensus is that it doesn't negatively affect the taste of the end up if done reasonably well. Brew a smaller batch of high-concentration, well-extracted, brew, then dilute to normal palatable levels of concentration. This got a terrible rep because when it was last heavily used, "we" didn't understand extraction as well and 99% of concentrates brewed for bypass were also horrendously overextracted - so of course the diluted result tasted horrid as well. This bypass brewing is what the manufacturer-recommended brew method for AP relies on - that diluting a well-extracted cup of concentrate will result in the same end effect as simply brewing a well-extracted larger batch 'straight', but with a far smaller footprint or hardware investment.

Bloom is ... controversial, at times. Theres a lot of folks who're pretty convinced it's either useless, ornamental, or both. There's also a lot of folks convinced it's essential and see a good bloom as a necessary indicator of a fresh coffee. I'll take somewhat a middle-point to those polar perspectives, but want to hijack a moment to talk about the gas present, why it is there, and its relationship with your brewing.

When we roast coffee, CO2 is trapped in the bean - mostly, created or released from within the bean as many of the chemical reactions fundamental to roasting coffee release CO2 as a byproduct - and that gas largely remains trapped in the bean once roasting concludes, gradually venting over time. This gas does not 'hold' flavour, and it is not desirable to keep the gas in, staling occurs mainly as a result of O2 exposure and the fact that CO2 generally slows its venting at about the time that O2s negative effect on taste begins to be perceptible is almost entirely coincidental. However, this gas does affect brewing for a relatively tritely simple physics reason: two different things cannot occupy the same space at the same time. If a ground is full of trapped O2, the water cannot soak into the same spaces to evenly extract that granule - it can only extract from regions not containing CO2. Because the CO2 is slightly pressurized, it is more difficult to displace than if the beans have fully degassed and are simply filled with neutral-pressure 'air'.

To discuss the impact on brewing, an example: in the case of cone - especially Clever - the effect of this trapped gas are very perceptible, and moreso on very fresh coffees. Using 4 day old medium roast, running a single, no intervention, fill-30s steep-drain process with no bloom results in ~%50+ of my grounds having floated on the surface of the brew and subsequently high-sided as the cone drained. Running an otherwise identical brew with a 45s bloom using 40g water to bloom 25g coffee and stirring heavily during bloom to speed up soaking-in, then the same no intervention, fill-30s steep-drain process cuts my high-siding mass down something I'd eyeball at less than 20%, with the remainder of the mass now sitting flat and even at the bottom of the cone.

A gassier ground is more volatile to your process - exact mass, volume, amount of trapped gas, hardness - all affect rate of venting, and there's too many small variances that will still play enough of an impact to be a nuisance to your brewing attempts. Similarly or more so, how that same ground will behave if immediately plunged into a brewing solution. Giving your brew process a bloom time to allow proper venting is not necessary, but certainly allows almost any brewing process, especially any using fresh coffee, to be far more consistent if all other things are allowed to remain the same.

Or for a more numerical example of the same thing, dialling in with four-day-old coffee on a Curtis G4 (a commercial on-demand automated 'pour over' brewer with a ton of process adjustment settings) using a TDS meter and extraction maths: our goal brew is one that measures a TDS of 1.2 (or 12,000 ppm) and has an extraction of 20% (of my total input dry coffee mass). Brewing straight with no bloom cycle gets me a variance of .35 TDS and ~3-7% extraction. Adding a bloom cycle using approximately (brew mass)*(1.9) and 30s hang time closes that variance down to .15 TDS and 2-4% extraction, while a 45s bloom further narrows variance to .08 TDS and 2.5% extraction. It's not perfect - longer times than that don't close the gap further, and odd shit like brew head dynamics, cone placement, and distrubtion of coffee in cone can all play roles that are exceptionally difficult to control for; but those results at least mean we're getting cups off the machine that are, if nothing else, more consistent than any of us doing the same pourover manually (at my best, I have variance of approximately .18 TDS and 5% extraction - its harder than it seems~!).

Filter rinsing, though, is a whole other bugbear. There's tons of mythos around needing to rinse paper filters to 'elimate paper taste' or wash the various processing chemicals out. They're bogus across the board. Food grade paper, no matter what colour it is, doesn't have toxic chemicals remaining - the unbleached kinds exist to pander to consumer fears that manufacturers cannot educate past but might as well make money from. The only filter I've ever encountered that imparted notable taste into coffee even when no one was primed to look for it was the Melitta #4 Unbleached Bamboo. Some folks do find that there's paper taste that they find in their cups and feel that rinsing their filters helps control for this. They're not wrong, but they're not right. At least, when I had a test audience to play with, coffee brewed to relatively normal concentrations (1:17 ratio) across a wide range of filter and even non-filter options generally was more likely to return with reports of paper taste if we asked participants about paper taste, even if no paper and/or rinsed paper were used in brewing their samples. It may still be there, in your cup - after all, you can brew an awfully paper-y tea if you run brewing water through an empty filter - but whether or not you notice it or care is much more dependent on whether or not you're looking for it than minor variations in process to try and 'correct' for it.

All that said, though, for most methods I recommend rinsing a filter anyway. A wet paper filter sticks its appropriate brewing object (AP cap, pour over cone, etc) better than the same filter dry and is at least easier to work with and in some cases even more consistent or reliable compared to the same process with a dry filter.

Now, there's a ton more variations in process and brewing that could come into play - I've tried to cover the more general theory around brewing and how some of the most common and most impactful changes to a recipe or formula can affect what you're going to get in your cup at the end. I hope I've also provided a framework by which you can at least try and assess anything I've missed; by looking at the effects of the change on how fast extraction might take, or how fast an extraction it might in turn want. The final dimension that model I'd like to present is something I rather talked past on the way to getting here: how repeatable any given change can be as far as recreating the same good or bad results again later.

If I suggest adding 'stir' step to your AP brew, say 30s after you've finished adding your full brew volume of water in inverted method: you know that with lots of water in, you've already a fairly high rate of extraction, because theres lots of solution to brew grounds, and lots of space between the grounds; you also already know that agitation accelerates brewing as well, with rate or scale of agitation relatively proportional to the resultant increase in pace. So you can guess that you already have fairly fast extraction, and similarly can guess that the 'stir' step will further accelerate extraction. If your last brew without a stir step was underextracted, this change may be what you're hoping for. If it is - your immediate concern becomes how do you make sure you can perform the same step again and get the same good result? Because scale of agitation is a factor, you want to avoid stirring at different rates - faster once or slower another will affect the scale of its effect. In adding a stir step, consider ways it could be different next time and try and control them - remember how deep you put the spoon, try and make your stirring something simple to remember and easy to repeat - "one circulation per second for five seconds" say, is much more repeatable than "stir for five seconds" not clearly defining pace.

Or using the same building-blocks approach, this understanding of extraction can make understanding this community's' fixation on grinders and expensive or high-end grinders especially a little more understandable: all of the above is most true when your grind particles are more similar in size to one another. If everything is all different sizes, there's a whole bunch of different ideal extraction windows and if you successfully hit any one of them, you must have got some of the others wrong. If there's enough 'wrong'-sized particles present, that can show up in your cups' flavour even if you hit an ideal range on the majority of your brew mass.

The final and most interconnected concept I want to introduce is also the one question that you may have found in the course of this that's not quite covered yet: why not just use tiny particles and lots of water for a very fast, very even, extraction across a narrow window. So, if smaller particles extract faster, 'why can't we' just use espresso or turkish grind in a FP or in a AP and simply have a very fast, even, brew from there? It's a very reasonable question, to be honest, and the main reason 'we' can't do that is related most fundamentally to the above concept around grind consistency. Most consumer grinders are not extremely consistent at espresso fineness - they're typically least consistent at either pole of their range (very fine and very coarse); while the shorter your extraction window is, the tighter your magins of error. A grind size that has an ideal time of 30s has a margin of error somewhere between 2 and 4 seconds; while a grind size ideal for french press has an ideal time of 4 minutes, but has almost 45s of margin of error. Longer brew times are more tolerant of particle size variance, and as a result, are generally also more tolerant of not spending several thousand dollars on a grinder. In the case of espresso fineness, without the pressurization of an espresso machine, you couldn't convince any other method to drain fast enough to not completely void your margin of error.

There's all sorts of changes and methods and practices that are ... ornamental. That's not bad. Humans are unbelievably subjective, and performing ritual with the expectation of causing better results can cause us to find those better results solely on the basis of feeling like we did something to cause them. That subjectivity is part of being human and part of what is fun about coffee; there's no reason to shun or scorn subjectively-created enjoyment as though it's any less 'real' by our experiences than things that might be more built-in for any given bean and brew.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Cool Free Stuff to use Online

3D modeling
Digital Painting:
Vector Drawing:
Digital Music Production:
Music MIxing:
  • http://mixxx.org/
  • From /u/TaTayou :For digital music production there is also reaper, you can use the demo (which is like the full version) as long as you want(and not only during 60days as advertised). : www.reaper.fm
-/u/just_not_ready says: Audacity Photo/Image Editing:
-/u/TunaLobster adds: Paint.Net Go to school and take courses:
Learn programming:
Make a game:
-/u/ViKomprenas says: http://superpowers-html5.com/index.en.html Learn a language:
Play old arcade games:
Learn how to fly a flight sim:
Nothing Needed
  • Write a book or short story. No Internet needed. Just word and your imagination.
/u/bumbletowne shares this huge list of art stuff. :MORE ART! (shameless plug for /r/drawing and /r/learnart ) Also for digital painting:
And for regular painting/figure drawing:
(New Masters Academy-they have gesture practice there too) https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCliUF1c8m7MUspaCykJljSg To practice gesture:
Reference libraries for people:
Palette selector (A THING THAT HELPS YOU PICK COLORS THAT GO GOOD TOGETHER)
Can't think of what to draw? Here's an image randomizer of things to draw
More