Tuesday, October 9, 2018
Conservatives are Fear-driven with Symptoms of Low Social Mobility
It's easier to digest the Trump enabling conservative mindset when you consider why it is they are so susceptible to the principles of authoritarianism. Why is adherence to the king important to them? Why do they relish in the behavior of petulance and infantilism? Why all the rabble-rousing? Why do conservatives find these toxic virtues appealing? Why are they insecure and emotionally volatile? Why are they intellectually dishonest and why do they engage a topic in bad faith? What are they so afraid of?
Aside from the very obvious observable reputation and behavior of a lifelong scumbag and pathological liar in Donald Trump, allow me to do my best explaining what conservative authoritarianism looks like in the head-space of conservative America. I personally feel that Trumpism has transcended whatever is left of conservatism into something far more dangerous and radical, but for now we will refer to them as conservatives, even though fiscal conservatives or what's left of them voted for Hillary. Regardless, these right-wing concepts and feelings transcend democratic partisanship given the principles of authoritarianism as they relate to what is true and when truth is diametrically opposed to one's beliefs.
As it can be understood, the foundation of social and cultural 'fear' is rooted in hate and modern conservatives typically take a 'Good versus Evil' approach towards that which runs counter to their identity. They often express their beliefs and values exclusively in absolutes and superlatives for this reason, not unlike the linguistic congruence of Trump himself, who literally cannot speak at length about a complex subject and navigate the discourse successfully enough to promote his beliefs and express his points, making him unqualified to comment on matters social, cultural, economic, and political.
A symptom of this 'fear' is a susceptibility to disinformation and propaganda, in which conservatives will immediately come to defense of money-grubbing, fear-mongering oligarchs from the GOP, the right-wing media, and their corporate 'investors', who have worked in tandem to systematically undermine the overall well-being of humanity for personal profit. As we have seen time and time again, trickle-down is still widely accepted despite evidence to the contrary. The GOP is essentially a conduit for fostering a...political ‘Stockholm Syndrome’. These are the same morally bankrupt vulgarians that brought us anti-intellectualism as a virtue and radical identitarianism (see Richard Spencer and Fox News) and are currently moving us towards an ‘illiberal democracy’ akin to the economic and social corruption of Putin’s Russia.
The studies listed below help illustrate the manner in which the brain is susceptible to demagoguery and the principles of authoritarianism. As demonstrated, conservative youths develop more grey matter ('shorter' or preferred neural pathways/behaviors) around their amygdalas (fear processing center of the brain), whereas liberal youths develop more grey matter around the Anterior cingulate cortex (the reasoning center of the brain ). Accordingly, the ACC includes: the anterior region, which is involved in executive function, the dorsal region, which is involved in cognitive processes, and the ventral region, which is involved in emotional regulation. Fear in this capacity is often void of nuanced restraint and clarity and is the manner in which conservatives feel discomfort and insecurity in dissonance arousing situations. They're in a way, wired to be 'snowflakes', in that fear and discomfort around a subject act as a defense mechanism that overrides objective truth in order to feel safe about one's reputation, beliefs, and values. This while hiding behind the veil of politics to feel justified in their hatred of social and economic change through the bias of their community, the GOP itself, and conservative propaganda in the media. You routinely see this effect in religious groups and the like. Simply put, they’re fear-driven beings with symptoms of low social mobility (cultural capital).
Study A --- Brain scan
Study B
Study C
Study D
Study E
There is fact, and there is cognitive dissonance. the latter of which is an emotional landscape where truth is relative and lowbrow conspiracy theory runs rampant. Gas lighting and projection are a staple here and falsehoods feel vindicating when they run counter to perceived liberal agendas or entities, which allows lies to perpetuate and grow. Not out of policy, but out of malice. A place of self-aggrandizement where conservative constituents reside and by which the GOP has them hook, line, and sinker. As has been routinely observed, a frightening number of these people will not hesitate to vote for a bona fide dictator, a literal Nazi, child predator, or rapist. One needn't look hard to see that these people ravenously support a quality of man they'd never, ever allow to be left alone with their wives or children. It is as if the content of one's character doesn't matter anymore as long as Republicans are 'winning.' Winning feels good, so winning is the moral high ground. A place where the reputation of a man's character is worthless and self-reflection is impossible. Authoritarianism is very much alive in modern America and there is no shortage of narcissistic supply.
Furthermore, they all went out and voted for a malcontent snake-oil salesman who lives in a golden tower with his name written on it in caps lock. An abusive, spray-tanned, affluent egomaniac in a baggy suit with no redeeming qualities as a man, husband, father, and leader. The kind of adult you can't bring around because you're too ashamed and too worried about his behavior. Donald J. Trump is a person so fraught with hypocrisy and scandal that reasonable people are questioning whether he has a histrionic personality disorder or degenerative brain disease without a hint of hyperbole.
We now have a literal President who refuses to read long-form text and hasn’t finished a novel in five decades. A man so untethered from reality that he feels he has earned his right to be a criminal and that fondling women is genuinely appropriate. Not only will he do the crime, but he will brag about it publicly while simultaneously denying it and then turn around and gaslight whoever points out the behavior. Regardless of what you believe, or whether you think a narcissist can do good through bad in a vacuum, this is what conservative authoritarianism looks like and how it functions in the collective psyches of conservative America. Anybody who supports Donald Trump at this juncture is a certifiable dumbass or worse, a nihilistic troll. Conservatism has almost fully transitioned unto unbridled authoritarianism, and that's not hyperbole. Things have gotten so bad that hyperbole is dead.
Aside from the very obvious observable reputation and behavior of a lifelong scumbag and pathological liar in Donald Trump, allow me to do my best explaining what conservative authoritarianism looks like in the head-space of conservative America. I personally feel that Trumpism has transcended whatever is left of conservatism into something far more dangerous and radical, but for now we will refer to them as conservatives, even though fiscal conservatives or what's left of them voted for Hillary. Regardless, these right-wing concepts and feelings transcend democratic partisanship given the principles of authoritarianism as they relate to what is true and when truth is diametrically opposed to one's beliefs.
As it can be understood, the foundation of social and cultural 'fear' is rooted in hate and modern conservatives typically take a 'Good versus Evil' approach towards that which runs counter to their identity. They often express their beliefs and values exclusively in absolutes and superlatives for this reason, not unlike the linguistic congruence of Trump himself, who literally cannot speak at length about a complex subject and navigate the discourse successfully enough to promote his beliefs and express his points, making him unqualified to comment on matters social, cultural, economic, and political.
A symptom of this 'fear' is a susceptibility to disinformation and propaganda, in which conservatives will immediately come to defense of money-grubbing, fear-mongering oligarchs from the GOP, the right-wing media, and their corporate 'investors', who have worked in tandem to systematically undermine the overall well-being of humanity for personal profit. As we have seen time and time again, trickle-down is still widely accepted despite evidence to the contrary. The GOP is essentially a conduit for fostering a...political ‘Stockholm Syndrome’. These are the same morally bankrupt vulgarians that brought us anti-intellectualism as a virtue and radical identitarianism (see Richard Spencer and Fox News) and are currently moving us towards an ‘illiberal democracy’ akin to the economic and social corruption of Putin’s Russia.
The studies listed below help illustrate the manner in which the brain is susceptible to demagoguery and the principles of authoritarianism. As demonstrated, conservative youths develop more grey matter ('shorter' or preferred neural pathways/behaviors) around their amygdalas (fear processing center of the brain), whereas liberal youths develop more grey matter around the Anterior cingulate cortex (the reasoning center of the brain ). Accordingly, the ACC includes: the anterior region, which is involved in executive function, the dorsal region, which is involved in cognitive processes, and the ventral region, which is involved in emotional regulation. Fear in this capacity is often void of nuanced restraint and clarity and is the manner in which conservatives feel discomfort and insecurity in dissonance arousing situations. They're in a way, wired to be 'snowflakes', in that fear and discomfort around a subject act as a defense mechanism that overrides objective truth in order to feel safe about one's reputation, beliefs, and values. This while hiding behind the veil of politics to feel justified in their hatred of social and economic change through the bias of their community, the GOP itself, and conservative propaganda in the media. You routinely see this effect in religious groups and the like. Simply put, they’re fear-driven beings with symptoms of low social mobility (cultural capital).
Study A --- Brain scan
Study B
Study C
Study D
Study E
There is fact, and there is cognitive dissonance. the latter of which is an emotional landscape where truth is relative and lowbrow conspiracy theory runs rampant. Gas lighting and projection are a staple here and falsehoods feel vindicating when they run counter to perceived liberal agendas or entities, which allows lies to perpetuate and grow. Not out of policy, but out of malice. A place of self-aggrandizement where conservative constituents reside and by which the GOP has them hook, line, and sinker. As has been routinely observed, a frightening number of these people will not hesitate to vote for a bona fide dictator, a literal Nazi, child predator, or rapist. One needn't look hard to see that these people ravenously support a quality of man they'd never, ever allow to be left alone with their wives or children. It is as if the content of one's character doesn't matter anymore as long as Republicans are 'winning.' Winning feels good, so winning is the moral high ground. A place where the reputation of a man's character is worthless and self-reflection is impossible. Authoritarianism is very much alive in modern America and there is no shortage of narcissistic supply.
Furthermore, they all went out and voted for a malcontent snake-oil salesman who lives in a golden tower with his name written on it in caps lock. An abusive, spray-tanned, affluent egomaniac in a baggy suit with no redeeming qualities as a man, husband, father, and leader. The kind of adult you can't bring around because you're too ashamed and too worried about his behavior. Donald J. Trump is a person so fraught with hypocrisy and scandal that reasonable people are questioning whether he has a histrionic personality disorder or degenerative brain disease without a hint of hyperbole.
We now have a literal President who refuses to read long-form text and hasn’t finished a novel in five decades. A man so untethered from reality that he feels he has earned his right to be a criminal and that fondling women is genuinely appropriate. Not only will he do the crime, but he will brag about it publicly while simultaneously denying it and then turn around and gaslight whoever points out the behavior. Regardless of what you believe, or whether you think a narcissist can do good through bad in a vacuum, this is what conservative authoritarianism looks like and how it functions in the collective psyches of conservative America. Anybody who supports Donald Trump at this juncture is a certifiable dumbass or worse, a nihilistic troll. Conservatism has almost fully transitioned unto unbridled authoritarianism, and that's not hyperbole. Things have gotten so bad that hyperbole is dead.
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
Guide to Job Posting Buzz Words
Applying for a new job? Here's the secret meaning being job post buzz words:
- An incredibly LONG job description (You WILL be overworked.)
- A super short job description (The hiring manager doesn't understand the position.)
- A position that's posted multiple times within a short time frame (Toxic culture)
- A POSITION WRITTEN IN ALL CAPS (Shady. Avoid!)
- Multiple positions posted by the same company (If they hire in bulk, they fire in bulk. Expect layoffs)
- The words "rockstar," "ninja," or "guru" in the job description (Red flag for bro culture, or a typical office that's trying too hard to attract millennials.)
- A job description that sounds more like a Tinder profile or emphasizes cultural fit (They don't value diversity, and have poor work/social boundaries)
- If they describe the team as a family (Dysfunction alert! Favoritism. Nepotism. Ism. Ism.)
- The job title and requirements don't align, e.g. "Looking for an entry-level admin with 10 years of experience and an MBA to file papers and get coffee."
- Any mention of a personality test (They don't know how to hire people.)
- Any snark, like, "can you keep up?" (The business is probably run by a narcissist who will expect you to prove yourself worthy enough to join their oh-so-awesome team. Expect condescension.)
- "Other duties as assigned" = You will be asked to do things you're uncomfortable with or have nothing to do with your job and don't you dare complain.
- "Team player" = Like a group project in college, you'll do most of the work while your colleagues slack off.
- "Fast-paced environment" = Disorganized
- "Wear many hats" = Understaffed
- "Dynamic" = High turnover
- "Self-starter" = No training
- "Hit the ground running" = Overworked
- "Exciting opportunity" = You will be paid peanuts to take over the position someone else ran away from.
- The apply button takes you to a talent management platform, aka the resume black hole.
Friday, February 16, 2018
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Guide to Installing Kodi Media Server/Streamer
This procedure details every step of what I consider the best way to setup Kodi for any newbie or seasoned hobbyist. Special thanks to TV ADDONS, nixgates, Iceballs, kodibae, jsergio123 and mrblamo for keeping our streams going!
PART A: DOWNLOAD KODI
Windows | Mac | Android (Google Play) | Android APK (Sideload) | NVIDIA Shield TV | Amazon Fire TV | Xiaomi Mi Box | Raspberry Pi (OSMC) | Raspberry Pi (LibreELEC) | iPad/iPhone | Apple TV 4
PART B: ADD FUSION SOURCE
1) Launch Kodi
2) Settings Cogwheel
3) File manager
4) Add source
5) Enter the path for the media location: http://fusion.tvaddons.co
6) Enter the name for this media source: fusionco
7) Press OK
8) Return to Homescreen
PART C: INSTALL GIT BROWSER
1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Little box icon (top left corner)
3) Install from zip file
4) Enable Unknown Sources (if prompted)
5) fusionco
6) kodi-repos
7) english
8) repository.xbmchub-3.0.0.zip
9) Install from repository
10) TVADDONS.CO Add-on Repository
11) Services
12) Git Browser
13) Install
14) Return to Homescreen
PART D: ENABLE LIVE STREAMS (required for many direct links too)
1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Click on My add-ons
3) VideoPlayer InputStream
4) InputStream Adaptive
5) Enable
6) RTMP Input
7) Enable
8) Return to Homescreen
PART E: LAUNCH GIT BROWSER
1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Program add-ons
3) Git Browser
4) Press any key to dismiss notice
5) Search by GitHub Username
PART F: INSTALL INCURSION (Exodus Fork)
1) New Search
2) nixgates
3) incursion.repository-0.0.2.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.incursion-0.1.10.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back
PART G: INSTALL 1CHANNEL
1) New Search
2) Iceballs
3) repository.iceballs-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.1channel-2.5.72.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back
PART H: INSTALL GAIA (Bubbles fork)
1) New Search
2) gaiaorigin
3) plugin.video.gaia-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
6) Press Back
PART I: INSTALL CCLOUDTV (live TV)
1) New Search
2) kodibae
3) repository.kodibae-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.ccloud-1.5.6.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back
PART J: INSTALL ULTIMATE IPTV (live TV)
1) plugin.video.uiptv-1.0.5.zip
2) Install
3) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
4) Press Back
PART K: INSTALL DEATH STREAMS (SALTS fork)
1) New Search
2) teverz
3) repository.blamo-0.0.5.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.blamo-2.4.8.zip
7) Install
8) Restart
BONUS: LEGALLY STREAM BASIC USA CABLE CHANNELS
Install USTVnow Plus
OPTIONAL: PAID DEBRID SERVICES FOR 1080P TSUNAMI
Debrid Benefits
Configure Real-Debrid
Configure Premiumize
ALL DONE! SHARE THIS GUIDE AND SPREAD THE LOVE! <3
If you like this guide, please consider contibuting to the preservation of open source code!
PART A: DOWNLOAD KODI
Windows | Mac | Android (Google Play) | Android APK (Sideload) | NVIDIA Shield TV | Amazon Fire TV | Xiaomi Mi Box | Raspberry Pi (OSMC) | Raspberry Pi (LibreELEC) | iPad/iPhone | Apple TV 4
PART B: ADD FUSION SOURCE
1) Launch Kodi
2) Settings Cogwheel
3) File manager
4) Add source
5) Enter the path for the media location: http://fusion.tvaddons.co
6) Enter the name for this media source: fusionco
7) Press OK
8) Return to Homescreen
PART C: INSTALL GIT BROWSER
1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Little box icon (top left corner)
3) Install from zip file
4) Enable Unknown Sources (if prompted)
5) fusionco
6) kodi-repos
7) english
8) repository.xbmchub-3.0.0.zip
9) Install from repository
10) TVADDONS.CO Add-on Repository
11) Services
12) Git Browser
13) Install
14) Return to Homescreen
PART D: ENABLE LIVE STREAMS (required for many direct links too)
1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Click on My add-ons
3) VideoPlayer InputStream
4) InputStream Adaptive
5) Enable
6) RTMP Input
7) Enable
8) Return to Homescreen
PART E: LAUNCH GIT BROWSER
1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Program add-ons
3) Git Browser
4) Press any key to dismiss notice
5) Search by GitHub Username
PART F: INSTALL INCURSION (Exodus Fork)
1) New Search
2) nixgates
3) incursion.repository-0.0.2.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.incursion-0.1.10.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back
PART G: INSTALL 1CHANNEL
1) New Search
2) Iceballs
3) repository.iceballs-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.1channel-2.5.72.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back
PART H: INSTALL GAIA (Bubbles fork)
1) New Search
2) gaiaorigin
3) plugin.video.gaia-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
6) Press Back
PART I: INSTALL CCLOUDTV (live TV)
1) New Search
2) kodibae
3) repository.kodibae-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.ccloud-1.5.6.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back
PART J: INSTALL ULTIMATE IPTV (live TV)
1) plugin.video.uiptv-1.0.5.zip
2) Install
3) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
4) Press Back
PART K: INSTALL DEATH STREAMS (SALTS fork)
1) New Search
2) teverz
3) repository.blamo-0.0.5.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.blamo-2.4.8.zip
7) Install
8) Restart
BONUS: LEGALLY STREAM BASIC USA CABLE CHANNELS
Install USTVnow Plus
OPTIONAL: PAID DEBRID SERVICES FOR 1080P TSUNAMI
Debrid Benefits
Configure Real-Debrid
Configure Premiumize
ALL DONE! SHARE THIS GUIDE AND SPREAD THE LOVE! <3
If you like this guide, please consider contibuting to the preservation of open source code!
Thursday, January 18, 2018
Guide to Investing in Cryptocurrency (January 2018)
With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.
What's happening now and how bad will it get?
First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.
Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:
1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs
2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year
While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
Yet more scary news on China cracking down on crypto exchanges
Korea regulatory uncertainty
European governments talking about regulations
BTC futures contracts are now expiring this week, and possible manipulation there with contract hedging pushing the price down
Bitconnect Ponzi finally collapses
We had a new breed of speculators come in during the November/December timeframe after media made cryptocurrency mainstream following the Bitcoin 10K landmark. While cryptocurrency markets have always had too much hype, the latest rise wasn't just over-enthusiasm in fundamentally sound cryptocurrencies like Monero and Ethereum, but mass inflows of fiat into vaporware and complete nonsense without any use case. Many people came in to essentially gamble on symbols on an exchange, and are thus short term oriented and quick to sell on any slight downturn, which such further adds to selling pressure.
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. I don't expect us going below that support line anytime soon without any systematic breakdown. The fact we got closer to it is actually quite healthy in the long term because it is a valuation that can be logically justified using the cost factors of the mining network. In addition when I run a regression on the price history before the crazy Nov/December bull run, the first Fibonacci level seems to be just around $8000. So I think we should consistantly move above that support level, possibly with a few weeks of fluctuations between the $9-$13K range.
What should you do if you recently entered the market?
If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait a few months. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers.
The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it.
What should long term investors do?
For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit.
How to construct your portfolio going forward
Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling.
Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency
Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong).
There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine:
1) Initial information gathering and filtering
Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist
I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic.
Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund.
The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates).
If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action.
Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it.
Think about your portfolio allocation
You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos.
For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps.
You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
Think of your "circle of competence"
This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption?
This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.
Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets
If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.
Technical analysis isn't that useful over the short term in crypto, so stop daytrading
Technical analysis was initially developed by financial professionals primarily to measure momentum based on historical data. It can be useful in regulated efficient stock markets for a very good reason: patterns are fairly predictable in stocks since they are a result of intrinsic events (such as quarterly earning reports) or extrinsic events (interest rate change announced). Its true that we also have movement that is based around insider information, however we have laws that keep that to a minimum. Add to this the fact that most stocks are held with large institutional investors and bought and sold by financial professionals who slowly add and decrease their position over long term plans, which is why its rare for the wild swings within short periods. These different intrinsic and extrinsic events all have a correlation in price, and because the markets are regulated and efficient we can use them to predict movement within a reasonable degree of confidence.
None of this is true for crypto. Its completely unregulated and insider trading and PnD schemes are rampant. No technical analysis in the world takes into account that all it takes for a crypto to double is John McAffee to post a single sentence about it on Twitter, or a sub of a smaller crypto to organize a shilling operation on /r/CryptoCurrency. Its also filled with weak hands who will dump on any sign of sellling pressure.
This is why trying to use technical analysis tools from the stock market for short term trading in crypto isn't that useful. Technical analysis was meant to predict pricing movement in a regulated and efficient environment.
So stop daytrading. If you use technical analysis, use it for long term trend confirmation. Any attempt to trade short term based on price momentum is pure gambling. If you want to gamble get a girl and some friends and go to a casino and drink while you do it, its much more fun.
Summing it up
I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemeber/early January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming.
Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach.
Take care and have fun investing :)
SOURCE
What's happening now and how bad will it get?
First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.
Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:
1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs
2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year
While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
Yet more scary news on China cracking down on crypto exchanges
Korea regulatory uncertainty
European governments talking about regulations
BTC futures contracts are now expiring this week, and possible manipulation there with contract hedging pushing the price down
Bitconnect Ponzi finally collapses
We had a new breed of speculators come in during the November/December timeframe after media made cryptocurrency mainstream following the Bitcoin 10K landmark. While cryptocurrency markets have always had too much hype, the latest rise wasn't just over-enthusiasm in fundamentally sound cryptocurrencies like Monero and Ethereum, but mass inflows of fiat into vaporware and complete nonsense without any use case. Many people came in to essentially gamble on symbols on an exchange, and are thus short term oriented and quick to sell on any slight downturn, which such further adds to selling pressure.
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. I don't expect us going below that support line anytime soon without any systematic breakdown. The fact we got closer to it is actually quite healthy in the long term because it is a valuation that can be logically justified using the cost factors of the mining network. In addition when I run a regression on the price history before the crazy Nov/December bull run, the first Fibonacci level seems to be just around $8000. So I think we should consistantly move above that support level, possibly with a few weeks of fluctuations between the $9-$13K range.
What should you do if you recently entered the market?
If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait a few months. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers.
The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it.
What should long term investors do?
For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit.
How to construct your portfolio going forward
Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling.
Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency
Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong).
There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine:
1) Initial information gathering and filtering
Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist
I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
- What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
- What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
- Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
- What current product exists?
- How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
- What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic.
Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund.
The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates).
If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action.
Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it.
Think about your portfolio allocation
You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos.
For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps.
You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
- Core holdings - BTC, Ethereum, LTC...etc
- Platform segment - Ethereum, NEO, Ark...etc
- Privacy segment - Monero, Zcash, PivX..etc
- Finance/Bank settlement segment - Ripple, Stellar...etc
- Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment -VeChain, Walton, Libra...etc
- Promising/Innovative Tech segment - Raiblocks, IOTA, Cardano...etc
Think of your "circle of competence"
This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption?
This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.
Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets
If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.
Technical analysis isn't that useful over the short term in crypto, so stop daytrading
Technical analysis was initially developed by financial professionals primarily to measure momentum based on historical data. It can be useful in regulated efficient stock markets for a very good reason: patterns are fairly predictable in stocks since they are a result of intrinsic events (such as quarterly earning reports) or extrinsic events (interest rate change announced). Its true that we also have movement that is based around insider information, however we have laws that keep that to a minimum. Add to this the fact that most stocks are held with large institutional investors and bought and sold by financial professionals who slowly add and decrease their position over long term plans, which is why its rare for the wild swings within short periods. These different intrinsic and extrinsic events all have a correlation in price, and because the markets are regulated and efficient we can use them to predict movement within a reasonable degree of confidence.
None of this is true for crypto. Its completely unregulated and insider trading and PnD schemes are rampant. No technical analysis in the world takes into account that all it takes for a crypto to double is John McAffee to post a single sentence about it on Twitter, or a sub of a smaller crypto to organize a shilling operation on /r/CryptoCurrency. Its also filled with weak hands who will dump on any sign of sellling pressure.
This is why trying to use technical analysis tools from the stock market for short term trading in crypto isn't that useful. Technical analysis was meant to predict pricing movement in a regulated and efficient environment.
So stop daytrading. If you use technical analysis, use it for long term trend confirmation. Any attempt to trade short term based on price momentum is pure gambling. If you want to gamble get a girl and some friends and go to a casino and drink while you do it, its much more fun.
Summing it up
I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemeber/early January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming.
Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach.
Take care and have fun investing :)
SOURCE
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