Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Guide to Installing Kodi Media Server/Streamer

This procedure details every step of what I consider the best way to setup Kodi for any newbie or seasoned hobbyist. Special thanks to TV ADDONS, nixgates, Iceballs, kodibae, jsergio123 and mrblamo for keeping our streams going!

PART A: DOWNLOAD KODI

Windows | Mac | Android (Google Play) | Android APK (Sideload) | NVIDIA Shield TV | Amazon Fire TV | Xiaomi Mi Box | Raspberry Pi (OSMC) | Raspberry Pi (LibreELEC) | iPad/iPhone | Apple TV 4

PART B: ADD FUSION SOURCE

1) Launch Kodi
2) Settings Cogwheel
3) File manager
4) Add source
5) Enter the path for the media location: http://fusion.tvaddons.co
6) Enter the name for this media source: fusionco
7) Press OK
8) Return to Homescreen

PART C: INSTALL GIT BROWSER

1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Little box icon (top left corner)
3) Install from zip file
4) Enable Unknown Sources (if prompted)
5) fusionco
6) kodi-repos
7) english
8) repository.xbmchub-3.0.0.zip
9) Install from repository
10) TVADDONS.CO Add-on Repository
11) Services
12) Git Browser
13) Install
14) Return to Homescreen

PART D: ENABLE LIVE STREAMS (required for many direct links too)

1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Click on My add-ons
3) VideoPlayer InputStream
4) InputStream Adaptive
5) Enable
6) RTMP Input
7) Enable
8) Return to Homescreen

PART E: LAUNCH GIT BROWSER

1) Click on Add-ons menu
2) Program add-ons
3) Git Browser
4) Press any key to dismiss notice
5) Search by GitHub Username

PART F: INSTALL INCURSION (Exodus Fork)

1) New Search
2) nixgates
3) incursion.repository-0.0.2.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.incursion-0.1.10.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back

PART G: INSTALL 1CHANNEL

1) New Search
2) Iceballs
3) repository.iceballs-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.1channel-2.5.72.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back

PART H: INSTALL GAIA (Bubbles fork)

1) New Search
2) gaiaorigin
3) plugin.video.gaia-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
6) Press Back

PART I: INSTALL CCLOUDTV (live TV)

1) New Search
2) kodibae
3) repository.kodibae-1.0.0.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.ccloud-1.5.6.zip
7) Install
8) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
9) Press Back

PART J: INSTALL ULTIMATE IPTV (live TV)

1) plugin.video.uiptv-1.0.5.zip
2) Install
3) Continue (or Restart if not installing additional addons)
4) Press Back

PART K: INSTALL DEATH STREAMS (SALTS fork)

1) New Search
2) teverz
3) repository.blamo-0.0.5.zip
4) Install
5) Continue
6) plugin.video.blamo-2.4.8.zip
7) Install
8) Restart

BONUS: LEGALLY STREAM BASIC USA CABLE CHANNELS
Install USTVnow Plus

OPTIONAL: PAID DEBRID SERVICES FOR 1080P TSUNAMI
Debrid Benefits
Configure Real-Debrid
Configure Premiumize

ALL DONE! SHARE THIS GUIDE AND SPREAD THE LOVE! <3

If you like this guide, please consider contibuting to the preservation of open source code!

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Guide to Investing in Cryptocurrency (January 2018)

With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.
What's happening now and how bad will it get?

First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.

Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:

1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs

2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year

While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:

Yet more scary news on China cracking down on crypto exchanges
Korea regulatory uncertainty
European governments talking about regulations
BTC futures contracts are now expiring this week, and possible manipulation there with contract hedging pushing the price down

Bitconnect Ponzi finally collapses

We had a new breed of speculators come in during the November/December timeframe after media made cryptocurrency mainstream following the Bitcoin 10K landmark. While cryptocurrency markets have always had too much hype, the latest rise wasn't just over-enthusiasm in fundamentally sound cryptocurrencies like Monero and Ethereum, but mass inflows of fiat into vaporware and complete nonsense without any use case. Many people came in to essentially gamble on symbols on an exchange, and are thus short term oriented and quick to sell on any slight downturn, which such further adds to selling pressure.

So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. I don't expect us going below that support line anytime soon without any systematic breakdown. The fact we got closer to it is actually quite healthy in the long term because it is a valuation that can be logically justified using the cost factors of the mining network. In addition when I run a regression on the price history before the crazy Nov/December bull run, the first Fibonacci level seems to be just around $8000. So I think we should consistantly move above that support level, possibly with a few weeks of fluctuations between the $9-$13K range.

What should you do if you recently entered the market?

If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait a few months. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers.

The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it.

What should long term investors do?

For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit.
How to construct your portfolio going forward

Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling.

Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency

Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong).

There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine:

1) Initial information gathering and filtering

Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.

Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.

Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc

Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?

Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?

2) Fill out an Investment Checklist

I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
  • What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
  • What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
  • Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
  • What current product exists?
  • How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
  • What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
3) Create some sort of consistent valuation model/framework, even if its simple

I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.

Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic.

Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund.

The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates).

If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do

Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.

Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.

If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.

Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action.

Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it.

Think about your portfolio allocation

You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos.

For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps.

You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
  • Core holdings - BTC, Ethereum, LTC...etc
  • Platform segment - Ethereum, NEO, Ark...etc
  • Privacy segment - Monero, Zcash, PivX..etc
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment - Ripple, Stellar...etc
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment -VeChain, Walton, Libra...etc
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment - Raiblocks, IOTA, Cardano...etc
You should also think about where we are in the cycle, as now given so much uncertaintly its probably best to stay heavily in core holdings and pick up a few coins within a segment you understand well. If you don't understand how enterprise solutions work or how the value chain is built through corporations, don't invest in the enteprise blockchain solutions segment. If you are a technie who loves the technology behind Cardano or IOTA, invest in that segment.

Think of your "circle of competence"

This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption?

This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.

Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets

If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.

Technical analysis isn't that useful over the short term in crypto, so stop daytrading

Technical analysis was initially developed by financial professionals primarily to measure momentum based on historical data. It can be useful in regulated efficient stock markets for a very good reason: patterns are fairly predictable in stocks since they are a result of intrinsic events (such as quarterly earning reports) or extrinsic events (interest rate change announced). Its true that we also have movement that is based around insider information, however we have laws that keep that to a minimum. Add to this the fact that most stocks are held with large institutional investors and bought and sold by financial professionals who slowly add and decrease their position over long term plans, which is why its rare for the wild swings within short periods. These different intrinsic and extrinsic events all have a correlation in price, and because the markets are regulated and efficient we can use them to predict movement within a reasonable degree of confidence.

None of this is true for crypto. Its completely unregulated and insider trading and PnD schemes are rampant. No technical analysis in the world takes into account that all it takes for a crypto to double is John McAffee to post a single sentence about it on Twitter, or a sub of a smaller crypto to organize a shilling operation on /r/CryptoCurrency. Its also filled with weak hands who will dump on any sign of sellling pressure.

This is why trying to use technical analysis tools from the stock market for short term trading in crypto isn't that useful. Technical analysis was meant to predict pricing movement in a regulated and efficient environment.

So stop daytrading. If you use technical analysis, use it for long term trend confirmation. Any attempt to trade short term based on price momentum is pure gambling. If you want to gamble get a girl and some friends and go to a casino and drink while you do it, its much more fun.
Summing it up

I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemeber/early January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming.

Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach.

Take care and have fun investing :)

SOURCE

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Things to Look for When Buying a House

As a note: This is not intended to replace a good home inspection. Its intended to be something you can use when looking at the house for the first time. This will help you not fall in love with a house only to find out after great expense that it has huge issues.

Layout:
  • Be wary of staging (the furniture/decorations that are in the house when you see it). Often times smaller stuff will be used to make rooms look bigger than they are. Take a tape measure, and have a list of the sizes of the stuff you own just so you can visualize yourself.
  • Pay attention to ports, outlets, thermostats, windows etc. If putting your bed in the corner will cover the thermostat you will be annoyed, or if there are no outlets in the corner where you want to put the TV you will end up with cables all over the floor. etc.
  • Pay attention to what is behind or around the room you are looking at. If its over the garage you will hear the garage door opener and it will be loud. If its near the kitchen it will smell like food, and be hot in the summer when cooking.
  • Dual zone AC? This is important if its two story since the upstairs will be hot without it (heat rises.) Look for thermostats. Ideally there is 1 or more per level.
  • Rooms on the front of the house will hear street noise (cars going by, children playing, etc). Which rooms face the front?
  • Extensions. If a part of the house looks like it doesn't “belong”, i.e. the doorway in could have been a wall and the whole extra part could have not existed then be careful. Often times extensions can “corrupt” the construction of the original house. For example, they can screw up drainage, cause leaks in the seams with the roof, or generally just weaker construction. Make sure you look up who built the house, and who did the extension, and also verify that the work was permitted and done to code by contacting the city or county code division.
  • Converted garage? If there is a front room that seems like it is right where the garage should have been it might be a converted room. These are often drafty rooms that have really hard floors and can be strangely noisy due to the household equipment like water heaters or furnaces hidden in them.
  • House backs up to a business? You are going to hear cars coming and going as well as trucks loading and unloading.
  • West facing rooms will get lots of light at sunrise, bad for bedrooms, good for breakfast nooks. Rooms that face west will get lots of light at sunset, bad if a TV will be anywhere near this situation when you come home from work. North facing rooms will get no direct sunlight at all so they will be cold in winter, but South facing rooms will get full sun in summer which will make them hot.
Electrical:
  • Smoke detectors? They are required, but newer houses wire them in so that they all go off during a fire. This is ideal as it means less battery replacements and better alerting. If you test one do they all go off? Houses older than the 90’s will not have this feature.
  • GFP in bathrooms, near sinks? This is a sign of modern electrical wiring. Note that in some houses the ground fault system may also be in the circuit breaker panel. Look for breakers with a “reset” button on them.
  • 2 prong outlets? This is a sign of old wiring which can cause problems and make it hard to plug various things in.
  • Circuit breaker’s properly labeled? This will just save you time when you need to power things down and generally indicates that the previous owner maintained things.
  • Is the house wired for ceiling fans? If there are two switches and one does nothing while the other turns on a overhead light the house might already be wired for ceiling fans and one has just not been installed yet.
  • Check the breaker panel. Is there room for expansion? This can be good if you plan on adding anything over time (electric car port for example). Not a deal breaker but additions can get expensive.
  • If any wall outlets move when trying to plug anything in then they are improperly and could be a few hundred dollars to have an electrician fix. They might also pose a fire risk.
Appliances:
  • Be wary of older appliances. Even if they work now they will break and when they do they will be expensive. Appliances over 10 years will likely need replaced soon so this needs to be factored into the cost.
  • If there are high end appliances make sure to ask if they are staying. Home owners love to show a house with a nest thermostat, nice water softener, etc only to replace them with lower end models when they actually move out.
Siding:
  • Wood, Vinyl, Metal? These will last varying amounts of time before being replaced. Wood needs painted and maintained every 5-10 years. Vinyl doesn't need painted (and can't be) but lasts much longer, 30 years is common. Metal lasts even longer, and typically doesn't need painted either.
  • Rot, paint chipping, etc? This can be a sign of things happening behind the siding.

Roofing:
  • If you can see tar under shingles then a repair has been made. If done badly these can leak and cause issues.
  • If singles are bowed, pulled up, falling off, etc then this is not good either. This may be a sign that the roof will need replaced right away which can be expensive.
  • If you see small round sections on the shingles this could be bails under the shingle popping out. This can indicate leaking and rotting in the rafters which is bad and expensive to fix.
  • Look around the neighborhood. Most houses will have been built about the same time and if some appear to have newer roofs then its a sign that the house you are looking at might need replacing soon as well.
  • Check the gutters. Are they clean? If not it might be a sign of improper maintenance from the current owner.
Water:
  • Low pressure at a sink, or shower? Check all the sinks.
  • Try filling sinks by putting a couple of inches of water in them and then letting them drain. If they don’t drain quickly its a sign of blockages that can range in complexity to fix. Also once drained they should be able to drain as fast as the water comes in. If not they might have a blockage.
  • Hot water tank, capacity, fill rate? Small tanks or low BTU means that you will run out of hot water frequently. This is annoying.
  • Soft water? Take a small bottle, fill it with 1-2 cups of water and then put 4 drops of dish soap in it. Shake 4-5 times. If the soap foams up a few inches then the water softener is working. If it doesn’t foam up much (like less than 1”) then the softener could be failing or you will need to buy a softener. This can be a few hundred dollars and often is overlooked by home inspectors.
  • Alternatively to the water softener, check to see if the house has a whole house filter installed. Ask the current owner how often it needs replaced and check how much the replacement costs are. They can add up quite fast.
  • City water or Well? Check the price for city water, its usually more expensive than you expect. For wells, ensure that there is a bladder (big tank) which is what is used to hold pressure. In either case check that the sinks are not pushing air out anywhere.. This means that there is a leak somewhere which will be expensive to fix.
  • Also, if the house has well water check to see how fast the water is replenished. Run a sink until the well turns on (usually indicated by a large click as the relay changes state) then turn off the sink and see how long before your hear another click. The longer it takes the slower the tank file. This can also be acomplished by asking the home owner for well GPM. Low numbers (1-2 GPM mean you might run low on water with company over)
  • See if you can find out what type of pipes where used to supply water to the house. Post 1980 should be safe, but before that they may have used pipes with lead in them. Replacing these can be very expensive so its best to know, and if needed you can take a water sample to a testing facility to test for lead contamination. 
  • Sewer pipes can be the same. Older houses can have cast iron piping that will need to be replaced. This can be very expensive. Its also possible for a house to have clay pipes which can be destroyed by trees nearby the pipes. For an older house it can be worth getting the sewer lines scoped to check for roots.
  • Exterior spigots, do they drip at all? If so that can freeze and cause major issues.
  • If the house has a septic system then make sure you check out the leach field. If its wet or swampy and the weather can not be the source the run away. This can be tens of thousands of dollars to fix.
  • If the house has a thermostatic valve in the shower that keeps the temperature constant then turn it on, let it get to a set temperature, then flush the toilet to see if the temperature changes wildly. If so the value might not be working fully and these can be several hundred dollars to fix.
  • Check the drain pans under the water heater, AC units, etc. If there is water leaking this can get expensive to repair. 

Monday, June 26, 2017

How to Use Google More Effectively

This also works for cool other things. I remember the days when I could pirate most music simply by typing

filetype:mp3 [song name]

Found a lot of textbooks with

filetype:pdf [the ISBN of the book I wanted]

also

related:[site name]

will give you results for sites related to the site you input, whatever that means.

info:[site name]

will give you info about that website

cache:[site name]

will give you google's cached version of the site.

Just some helpful tips.


Edit: brackets irrelevant, I'm just saying that's stuff you fill in with the thing you're trying to search for.


2nd Edit: Since this seems to have been well received, here's some further obscure search tuning


Combine searches (seriously why not just do two separate searches)

put "OR" between each search query. For example,

MarchAgainstTrump OR The_Donald

Search social media

put @ in front of a word to search social media. For example:

@twitter comedians that won't make me cry

Search hashtags

Put # in front of a word. For example:

#UselessTalents

Search for wildcards or unknown words

Put a * in your word or phrase where you want to leave a placeholder. For example:

What am I doing with my *

Search for a price

Put $ in front of a number. For example:

esoteric shirts to make me look cool $10

Search within a range of numbers

Put .. between two numbers. For example:

used Xbox $200..$400

Just a few small things to improve your life...

SOURCE

Thursday, April 27, 2017

The Truth About Skin Moisturizer

Firstly, be aware that "moisturizer" is a marketing term with no scientific or clinical definition. For all intents and purposes, ordinary old tap water, absorbed into the skin via a warm bath, relaxing sauna or cooling swim, is a "moisturizer". That's why your skin feels so nice and soft after those activities ... at least for a while.

Secondly, you must understand that the "moisturizer" branch of the cosmetics industry is a high-stakes, billion dollar game played by a thousand vicious competitors who are all forever seeking an edge in the marketplace, and therefore consumer deception is a common, even universal practice. Thirdly, be advised that the vast majority of their research and development expenditures are focused on marketing and persuasion - certainly not on something as peripheral to their bottom line as producing a better formulation, or anything. In fact, most manufacturers devote far more time, money and energy to designing and producing an attractive container and label, than they ever do on designing, producing or improving their actual product.

As to your actual question:

Be they the $60-for-a-tablespoon-in-a-crystal-pot variety, the ubiquitous, sink-side blue jar variety, or your drugstore-brand "family size" pump bottle of white goo, all commercial "moisturizers" work in exactly the same way. They all provide a bit of water that penetrates cell walls membranes to rehydrate and plump up the outermost few layers of dead skin cells that form your epidermis. Typically, their water content is around 65%. In addition, they all contain (@~25%) some sort of grease, wax or oil to trap that water inside, so it isn't just immediately evaporated away again by your excessive body heat ... you sultry thing, you.

In that regard, the only advantage all those hundreds of modern "moisturizers" have over your grandmother's go-to for dry skin - petrolatum, aka Vaseline - is that makers have gotten more sophisticated at finding different formulations and combinations of grease, oil and/or wax that don't feel quite as slippery or greasy to the touch, once the cells have absorbed all they can, and the leftovers remain on the surface of your skin.

This is the reason why, for example, Johnson's Baby Oil encourages you to slop on their product immediately after you shower: to seal in that tap water you've just absorbed (which needs to be done within 5 minutes of showering, or it's gone), and to ensure that any excess oil you might apply will rub off on your towel and/or your fresh clothes, and thus appear to have been successfully "absorbed" by your skin. (What - did you think there was some sort of magic involved? JBO is merely a fine mineral oil with some scent added; buy a store brand and save some money.)

Some expensive products meant for the delicate skin of the face contain a proprietary dermal irritant like CEF. Such products basically inflame the dermis, which causes its cells to temporarily inflate by taking up plasma, which in turn reduces the appearance of facial wrinkles for a few hours (rather like blowing up a withered, half-deflated balloon). But eventually the irritant is neutralized by the body's defenses, the dermal irritation subsides and its cells deflate themselves, allowing wrinkles to re-emerge - thus setting up a new and lucrative cycle of product consumption.

There are many other formulations. Some makers add a preservative like paraben to extend shelf life. Some add a humectant to absorb and trap additional water for a longer-lasting experience. Some add collagen, which is nothing more than un-absorbable connective tissue, typically sourced from that rubbery skin inside eggshells; you might as well rub yourself with actual eggshells, for all the moisturizing benefits topical collagen will provide. Same goes for added keratin, which is mostly sourced from cattle horns and hooves acquired from slaughterhouses. I know: eww, right?

Some products increase their appeal by including pleasant odourants, like rosewater (St. Ives) or menthol (Noxema). Some add vitamins, in the hope they will appear to consumers as being able to "nourish" skin (hint: they can't).

Both useful and useless additions to moisturizers come and go in phases. At one time, sheep lanolin was popular; but it's stinky, and was largely abandoned when less pungent plant-based greases were developed. Chlorophyll was once a widespread addition, though nobody ever got around to explaining its benefits, or the supposed parallels between plant and skin chemistry. A few years ago, PABA was all the rage as a UV-blocking additive, until someone pointed out that the living tissue of the dermis was actually incapable of absorbing topical PABA. In fact, the only way to get it into dermal cells where it could do some good was to drink the damn stuff, eight hours before exposing oneself to the sun. Vitamin E is/was a popular addition, at least until clinical studies indicated it actually had no better moisturizing effect than any other fine, plant-based oil. And the most recent additive fad seems to be hemp oil, Harrelson help us.

BTW, dry skin isn't actually a health issue, unless it's so profound that cracks appear in the epidermis, exposing the living dermis to the outside world and all its microscopic creepy-crawlies. It's really more of a comfort and aesthetic issue. Still, if severe enough, it can interfere with quality of life, and it makes some people quite miserable.

I provide a couple of citations, below. There's a lot of good info out there, but I would recommend that readers stick to those sites offered by legitimate medical and research facilities, universities with teaching hospitals, and so on. Don't rely on general interest sites or any site offering to sell you product.

Even worse for providing dubious information and specious assertions are the commercial web pages of the retail cosmetics industry. If the link has a little "registered" symbol in its name, just walk on by. It is revealing that the first 500 or so links provided by any Google search for "moisturizers" consist almost entirely of cosmetic manufacturers' websites, rather than to legitimate clinical information. It's the same reason why the first thing one encounters upon entering a department store, is the makeup counter. (Hint: $)

Here, to start readers off, are a couple of authentic medical citations regarding moisturizers:

Mayo Clinic: Getting the Most out of Your Moisturizer

Harvard Medical School: Moisturizers: Do They Work?

University of Tennessee Medical Centre: The Importance of Moisturizing

The University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics: Winter Dry Skin

SOURCE

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Blueprint for Learning SEO and Online Marketing

I teach people (online store owners) marketing skills. Here's the curriculum I recommend starting with. The blessed thing about marketing is that a) the actual skill curve is fairly shallow, as long as you can think with data and write fairly well and b) everything you need to surmount said skill curve is available online, often from the platform publishers themselves.

Moz - a company that publishes a package of niche tools for fetching various data about site marketing performance - publishes the excellent, excellent Beginner's Guide to SEO.

Google offers free, online certification programs in Google Adwords, their ad platform, that will get you credentials you can put on your LinkedIn profile, as well as a slightly less intense one in Google Analytics. You'll ideally want both certifications, since those two applications play so closely together. 

Similarly, getting certs in Social PPC (pay-per-click) will only make your resume stronger. Facebook offers Facebook Blueprint, fairly similar to the Adwords certification course, but for social ads. 

Altogether, these will give you the conceptual background you need to be able to understand how on-site content and off-site marketing contribute to organic search, how to run ads on various platforms to stimulate paid traffic, and Analytics will (kinda) help you understand how those things fit together into your marketing mix and where you're failing with each of them.

Creative Suite you can master on your own with a million Youtube videos. Focus on Illustrator, probably. This isn't critical, but sometimes when you're making a social ad or creating a content page, you need a graphic on the fly. You'll be a way stronger candidate if you don't have to wait on the art department to make it.

Learn the shit out of Excel. Real digital marketers are all about data-informed decisions. Excel allows you to take the data from several programs and use it to highlight trends. By Excel, I really mean learn the "advanced" Excel skills like PivotTables, =VLOOKUP, =LEFT/=RIGHT, formulas (others include =SUM, =AVERAGE, =CONCATENATE), Find/Replace, Text-to-Columns, and autofilling.

Optional bonus points: a light background in front-end dev languages like HTML/CSS or JavaScript can help you when you're creating content pages and need to understand why something's not rendering correctly. It also lets you talk to the dev monkeys a little bit whenever your boss wants you to do something drastic in a client's CMS. 

Learn a little SQL - it can help you dig in and get the reporting you need out of a client's CMS when it's not data you can get from Analytics. Finally, learn to work with a few CMSes themselves - the most popular one by a longshot is Wordpress.

So here's what you do with all of that: 

think of a business idea. 
  • Start a free Wordpress site for it
  • Build content pages and customize the design - that demonstrates your writing ability and gets you a little grease with CSS
  • Launch the site
  • Use SEMRush to learn that you didn't make the content pages keyword-rich enough
  • Do some keyword research, then rewrite them
  • Specify meta titles/descriptions for every page
  • Verify the site with Google Search Console
  • install Google Analytics and Adwords tracking code
  • Spend $25 to get $75 of free Adwords credits
  • Do something similar with Facebook
  • Divide those budgets in half
  • Set up campaigns in each ad platform to target what/who you think you should target
  • Observe the results and figure out what you did wrong
  • Use the other half of your budget to improve those results
  • Make notes about what changed
  • Finally, export all this data into Excel and try to use some PivotTables to demonstrate how this data changed over time
That's your practice course.