Random but Interesting Posts about Nothing in Particular: Future Studies and the Singularity

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Future Studies and the Singularity

I. Ray Kurzweil is a large part of the futurist conversation. But to teach entirely from his work is unbalanced. He is one of many primary sources. /u/heredami mentioned the 3 schools of thought; accelerating change, the event horizon, and an intelligence explosion.

II. Study past trends to predict the future(s). I would cover the history of Silicon Valley, the beginning of Intel, Fairchild semiconductor, and even Shockley semiconductor. The story of the traitorous eight, Shockley's fall from power, and Noyce and Moore's creation of Intel is incredible. This is the Eniac, a room sized computer that took multiple people to operate. 20 years later, Moore and Noyce's Integrated Electronics produced the 4004 microchip that outperformed the Eniac in size, power, speed and many other returns. We witness a progression in only 50 years; vaccuum tube> transistor> microchip.

III. Study the methodology of forecasting. Instead of one set future, the scientific consensus is the theory of a multiverse. This infographic by NASA scientist Dan Berry does it best; there is no one set future, but a great plurality of future(s). In fact, there is no 'present' at all. The present moment is a figure of speech that humans use to communicate ideas across a small duration of time. There is a conversation about it, here. While one can never predict the future, prediction is relative, a matter of degree. The same as reknowned physicist Michio Kaku claims that the concept of impossibility is relative, so too are the future(s). Arthur C. Clarke said it best in his three laws. The Paradox of Futurology and technological forecasting is inescapable. But Future(s) Studies has structure and methodology. Different aspects of the future are predictable with varying degrees of reliability and precision. For there to be a degree of predictability, it is not necessary that it be possible to identify one specific scenario as what will definitely happen. If there is at least some scenario that can be ruled out, that is indeed a degree of predictability (Bostrom). Bertrand de Jouvenal was an early writer and his dichotomy of futura and facta still provide insight to this profoundly evolutionary practice humans do; chronesthesia. Here is a list of a number of theories for mental 'time traveling' from neuroscience.

IV. With these corner stones and primary sources of Future(s) Studies covered, I'd move on to the interesting and imagination-capturing stuff. /u/heredami provided some of the essential publications by the Machine Intelligence Research Institute. To complement, read through the AMA from the current CEO, Luke Muehlhauser here. Luke answers every insightful question with sources and links. I have collected and saved some of the very bestof and most in-depth comments, explanations, and thoughts that our /r/futurology have created throughout the life of our community. Each post I have collected deserves more analysis and scrutiny. They have all addressed these topics better than I ever could. Our collection below is the aggregate of some of the most profound and paradigm-shattering worldviews that define and redefine the art and science of Future(s) Studies.